Misery

Schlindwein AssociatesInvesting, Market Observations

An important assessment of fiscal policy is its impact on the well-being of the electorate. The wide range of needs, expectations and personal positions within the electorate makes a universal assessment difficult. Nevertheless, there is general agreement that levels and direction of employment and inflation impact most if not all in similar ways. It is no accident that monetary policy has a dual mandate of full employment and stable prices. A simple economic indicator, the Misery Index, was introduced in the 1960s. It combines the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation. It is assumed that a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation both create economic and social costs for an economy. The perspective here provides some comparisons that might be useful for assessing the economic environment ahead and investment implications.

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