Disconnect

Schlindwein AssociatesInvesting, Market Observations

2025 was a rewarding year for financial markets and investor portfolios. While a bit uneven, economic activity generally was favorable and inflation remained within a tolerable range. All investors likely are consumers, but not all consumers may be investors. A popular measure of consumer sentiment ended the year very near its historical 48-year low. Such lows more often than not have coincided with recessions, the most recent being that triggered by the pandemic. While inflation has backed off from prior highs, prices for many consumer items have remained sticky to the upside. This outcome likely has played a role in consumer sentiment and its seeming disconnect with other key variables. Economic trends and changes in investment market price levels are loosely correlated, but an understanding of relationships is useful for setting investment strategy.

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