What If

Schlindwein AssociatesInvesting, Market Observations

With a contraction in real U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of 2025, concerns over an outright recession have risen. A generally accepted indication of recession is two consecutive quarterly declines in real growth. This measure appears unlikely to be triggered as the consensus forecast is a return to real growth in the current quarter. Importantly, the broad U.S. stock market has fallen in each of the eleven economic recessions posted since 1949. The timing and magnitude of both recessions and stock market pullbacks have varied widely. The perspective here provides some basic information that can be useful for determining what portfolio action to take if a recession occurs.

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